Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Global warming is only the half of it

Human caused overfishing, ocean pollution, plastic ocean pollution, overpopulation, habitat destruction, forest overexploitation, the pet and animal parts trade, and addiction to economic growth are all additional causes of our current mass extinctions and a threat to all life, including ours. Being drawn into petty skirmishes about details of global warming is fighting the battle on the enemy's terms. Tobacco perception was finally turned ( and the tobacco industry gave up nitpicking) not just by evidence of lung cancer, but by hundreds of studies showing it to be nearly a universal toxin causing dozens of problems aside of lung cancer. So a calm, firm emphasis on the broad picture of human destructiveness is needed in addition to a sober presentation of details and proofs of human caused global warming. Our understanding of the details of any one of these threats will alter over time. There may be anastrophes, unexpected strokes of good fortune, or homoeostatic mechanisms of the biosphere which mitigate some of the threats, like global cooling effects of particulate pollution, But the overwhelming, exponentially increasing planetary destruction of the last 500 years is evident to almost everyone who has looked at it in good faith. It is like we are in a car with bald tires, a noisy transmission, loud knocking and so forth, but we are arguing only about whether to change the oil because the dipstick shows nearly empty and one of the passengers says he can't afford the time to top or change the dirty oil. The vehicle has a high chance of not getting where it is going. of catastrophic failure, unless it is stopped, examined carefully and the time and expense taken to change the odds.

Saturday, January 02, 2010

Peacenik stock play - sell arms stocks short

I was thinking because of some news stories, about the real "Dude" , who inspired the Big Lebowski character, and I realized I had a relative and a friend who also lived their progressive political and artistic views pretty much without compromising, and that it led to or at least co-existed with, in the long term, pretty successful financial outcomes in these cases. All of them were more or less in media, arts, show biz.

I wonder if maybe one could work against war and the arms trade and that familiarity with upcoming possible arms and peace treaties, and possible outbreaks of peace, might put one in a position to sell arms stocks short in a timely manner, and as a side benefit. being among the arms "bears" when they are vulnerable. I wonder if Geoge Soros has ever thought of it, the way he famously "shorted" the pound with a 10 billion play once. Of course one would be bucking world history to think that the military part of the military industrial complex, which traditionally grows more reliably than anything, and the cold war peace dividend of the early 90s has been obliterated it seems by new perceived bugaboos.Also another film inspiration, this one very negative, Viktor Bout, who is said to have inspired the film, Lord of War, seems to have beaten an attempt to extradite him from Thailand last August, but remains in jail pending an appeal soon. So all those factors are the major risks one would have to account for. Also if you were a prominent peace advocate and you shorted arms stocks, you could be accused of only promoting peace for short term financial advantage.

At least one can fantasize about a successful bear run against the arms trade in a worldwide outbreak of peace.